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Strange: Potholes litter path to Final Four

Hey, forget the seed snub. It's all about the match-ups and Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl likes his.

"We like our match-ups,'' Pearl enthusiastically told a crowd that gathered Sunday to watch the unveiling of the NCAA tournament bracket.

Pearl was quick to put a positive spin on the disappointing revelation that the Vols were awarded a No. 2 seed instead of the historic No. 1 seed the program felt it deserved. He sensed the collected fans and family needed a pick-me-up.

After opening-round foe American University, Tennessee's road to the Final Four could (and should) go through Butler, Louisville and - gulp! - North Carolina in Charlotte.

That's not North Carolina-Charlotte, the team that dumped the Vols in the opening round back in 2001 in Dayton.

That's North Carolina-Chapel Hill (North Carolina-Michael Jordan), playing for a Final Four berth in the friendly environs of Charlotte Bobcats Arena.

You play 'em one round at a time, but for the purposes of this space, we're assuming the higher seeds survive and advance.

"We've got good match-ups,'' assistant coach Steve Forbes confirmed Pearl's early diagnosis. "It's all about size and how we match-up speed-wise.''

But a little later, after the fans were gone, Pearl, speaking to the media only, wasn't so sure he really, really liked his match-ups.

"I don't know enough about the teams yet to know how much I like my match-ups,'' he confessed.

"But this is the hand we're dealt, so I'm going to like it. These are the cards we've got. I'm going to make this hand win, so I better start liking it right from the first interview to the last interview.''

Let's take it round by round.

American University, the Patriot League champion. First trip to the tourney. Big win at Maryland this year.

As a No. 2 seed two years ago, Tennessee needed an acrobatic last-second basket from Chris Lofton to outlast 15-seed Winthrop. American is no Winthrop.

Next round, Butler or South Alabama.

South Alabama of the Sun Belt beat Mississippi State, beat Western Kentucky twice and lost 91-88 at Vanderbilt. The Jaguars are athletic and will play up-tempo.

But in all likelihood, they won't beat Butler.

Butler, the Vols know.

"They embarrassed us in Madison Square Garden,'' said Chris Lofton.

Butler handled UT 56-44 last year in the Preseason NIT. That 40 minutes in the Garden was some of UT's worst basketball of the season.

The Bulldogs drain the shot clock, shoot the 3-ball and are very good at the free-throw line.

This year Butler is 29-3 with wins over Michigan, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Florida State.

"They're better now than they were (last year),'' Pearl said. "Fortunately, so are we.''

I don't like this as a second-round match-up. Butler isn't big, which is in UT's favor, but the Bulldogs are deliberate and savvy.

But there is this: Pearl is a master motivator and last year's NIT loss gives him great material.

"We played terrible and they out-willed us,'' said senior Jordan Howell. "I hope we play them.''

Waiting in Charlotte should be Louisville, a No. 3 seed that was, up until recently, contending for a No. 1 seed.

"I find it hard to believe there's going to be a better three seed in this tournament than Louisville,'' ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said Sunday night.

The Cardinals have improved considerably as the season played out and 6-foot-11 David Padgett could be a problem for UT's suspect post defense.

Another problem: Louisville defends the 3-ball very well.

On the other hand, Lofton would certainly get cranked up for his first shot at the home-state school.

So Lofton goes wild. Let's project Tennessee notching its first Sweet 16 victory. What next?

By the Elite Eight, you're going to be playing a very good team, no matter the year or the region.

But North Carolina in Charlotte is not a good match-up in anybody's book.

But didn't we say the same thing about Memphis at Memphis?

Mike Strange may be reached at 865-342-6276 or strange2@knews.com.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.

       30 Comments

Posted by mparker on March 16, 2008 at 11:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Mike, the diff is that UNC is for real. UMem's posts scuk big-time. Rose is great, but Ty Lawson is better.

Wayne Chism can play Hansbrough, I think, IF we get good refs.

As we've discussed ad nauseum, the games AFTER UMem apparently hurt ua badly. I'd sure as heck rather be facing UMem or UCLA than UNC or Kansas, I can tell you that.

Posted by BillVol on March 17, 2008 at 12:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)

We had a chance to earn a #1 seed this past weekend and didn't do it. Now we can prove that we derserved a 1. We can beat any of these teams or we can lose to any of them.

Posted by SGidds on March 17, 2008 at 12:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Lofton has played against Louisville before, Mike. In his freshman year the Vols played at Freedom Hall and actually led about midway through the second half. However, down the stretch they completely collapsed against Pitino's full court press and lost by 23. Of course, Buzz Peterson was still the coach then, so it would be a totally different animal now.

Posted by utcomvol on March 17, 2008 at 12:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Billvol, you're right. We had a chance to show we were a number one seed by winning our tourney and we didn't. Instead Arkansas showed off our biggest flaws for the selection committee: suspect pg play, pathetic post defense, and a coach who is too stubborn to switch up the defense when our post defense is losing the game for us. I hope we can make some adjustments between now and Friday and will cheer like heck for these boys that have worked so hard all year.

Posted by rodneyadms on March 17, 2008 at 2:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)

1.Butler will be tough
2.Louisville will be fun because of the Lofton connection and Bruce facing Pitino
3.Tyler Hansborough snubbed Bruce Pearl when he tried to recruit him..Tyler snickered at the notion that Bruce actually thought he would consider Tennessee...would love to watch Tennessee smack him down!

Posted by anthony on March 17, 2008 at 3:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)

who does Strange work for? for us? Or some rich millionare which spots the paper and then call s and chews somebody out for not writing it his way. We just need to clone more UT fans than not. The bigger they are the harder they fall.

Posted by scvols on March 17, 2008 at 7:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Hey, if we make it past these team to get to the final 4, we will prove that TN BB is for real. We did not deserved to be a #1 seed, we did not even make it to our championship game.

Posted by st98 on March 17, 2008 at 8:58 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Nobody said this would be easy. My expectations going in was to get to the final 4. It is even harder to win the whole thing. With that said, I was hoping to play a NC in the final four not the chance to get there. That is if we can get past our second round game. Butler was one of the 5 teams I did not want to see us play before the tournament was announced along with NC and Louisville who are in the same bracket. South Alabama even has a home game as a 10 seed. I realize you have to play a team like Carolina eventually, but they are the clear favorite and solid at every position. I would have rather headed out west to be in UCLA's bracket. I thought worst case we would be the 2 seed in Kansas bracket. I figured if TN got the 1 seed, Kansas would have been the 2 in the same bracket anyway.

Posted by volinky on March 17, 2008 at 9:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I think the game we lost at U of L was Buzz's first season as coach - which would not have been Lofton's freshmen year. I could be wrong...

Posted by TommyJack on March 17, 2008 at 9:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)

It's the caste system, folks. (see KY invited)
Only choice is to man up and knock'em down one by one. Too late for bitchin and moaning. Not too late to lose the black shoes, however. Selah

Posted by Bigger_Al on March 17, 2008 at 9:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)

rodneyadms - Are you sure that was Hansbrough and not Brandon Wright that scoffed at UT trying to recruit him? I thought Hansbrough was already signed by the time Bruce got to UT...

Posted by kjneel on March 17, 2008 at noon (Suggest removal)

Sadly I dont think we get past Louisville

Posted by johnlg00 on March 17, 2008 at 12:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I think you are right, Bigger_Al, about Wright and not Hansbrough snubbing the Vols. mparker, living in NC, I have seen the 'Heels all year. I'm not sure Lawson is better than Rose. Lawson is more of a distributor because he has more consistent scorers to get the ball to. Rose is better as an individual offensive player, but he has to score more on his team. Hansbrough travels, charges, or both on nearly every play, but the ACC refs have let him make a career of it. Unless we get some extremely courageous refs in Charlotte, our post men will last about five minutes each against him if they try to defend him at all. One of UNC's other big advantages against us is that they have several quick, long perimeter players, such as Ginyard, Ellington, and Green, who can make it awfully hard for Chris and JaJuan to get open looks on the perimeter. The 'Heels can be had, but it will take the best game our guys have in them to beat UNC in Charlotte with the Final Four on the line. However, we have plenty more to worry about before we get to that point, as others have said!

Posted by rockyknox on March 17, 2008 at 1:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Play one game at a time. I can't help but think that Butler and Louisville are as concerned about us as we are about them.

Posted by vol88 on March 17, 2008 at 2:22 p.m. (Suggest removal)

TommyJack is right. We would need to be consistently ranked in the top 10 throughout the season for 3 or 4 years in a row before we're mentioned in the same breath with the Tobacco road teams.

Yep, rankings do matter!

Posted by justisiscumin on March 17, 2008 at 2:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)

What in the H*LL was Chism doing wearing an Alabama cap in the picture in the Sentinel today taken at the seeding party? WHAT AN IDIOT! I can handle a lot of things but wearing Bama gear at ANYTIME, much less at a UT event is UNACCEPTABLE!

Posted by mparker on March 17, 2008 at 2:31 p.m. (Suggest removal)

one thing is for certain....if the vols make the final four, it sure as hell won't be 'cheap'.

Something else: I just don't think Chris an Jajuan are the keys to this thing. I think it is Tyler.

Tyler played really poor defense against arky, from what I can tell. Againtst USC, he was nonexistant unti the second half.

Eyler gives us the chance for high-percentage shots, and to draw fouls. He also wears down the other teams D when they have to collapse on him.

Every one else has to play their game, but Tyler has to have MVP-type games.

We are not going to win shooting 3's, we are going to win in the paint.

Posted by mparker on March 17, 2008 at 2:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Butler:
they remind me much of UK, but with better shooters.

The trick is to get ahead and stay ahead. That means no random fast breaks with crappy passes.

We need to get down in a half-court set every time, and have very good possession efficiency.

Posted by orangepablo on March 17, 2008 at 2:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Ut has no reason to be upset over losing the #1 seed. Stop pulling choke jobs in the SEC tournament and the #1 seeds will start pilling up. Go VOLS!!

Posted by UTByrd on March 17, 2008 at 2:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Now is the time of year that we find out how good coaching staffs really are. Coach Williams should have won 2 or 3 Nat'l titles while at Kansas. He did not. Let's see how good of a coach he really is. Hopefully the referees of each and every game throw out the "reputation" of perenial contenders.
About 20 years ago, I went to Nashville NCAA tourney when East Tennessee State played Oklahoma. ETSU had them beat until the ref's took over in the second half. Needless to say, ETSU lost. I chalked it up to reputation(or lack thereof), better TV draw, and traveling fans. I'm sure that the selection committee took these things into consideration when seeding this tourney. They threw out RPI and SOS when it suited them and used RPI/SOS when it suited them. A total lack of consistency.
I am not complaining bacause it would do no good. I will state that the committee needs to be more consistent.
Talk about a snub. Arizona State beat Arizona twice and also had a better conference record than Arizona. Guess who's dancing and who's going to the NIT.

Posted by EastTNVol on March 17, 2008 at 3:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Justis that is not an Alabama cap. It is an Atlanta Braves cap.

Posted by volboy81 on March 17, 2008 at 4:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)

justis needs a lesson in whose symbol is what. Alabama has the girlie curlie on their A. EastTNVol is right...hes wearing a Braves cap!

Take the games one at a time Vols. Dont have a let down. GO GET 'EM!

Posted by johnlg00 on March 17, 2008 at 4:48 p.m. (Suggest removal)

UTByrd, Jim Rome opened his show with a blast at the selection committee for giving the Vols a #2 seed and for excluding Arizona State. He said pretty much what you did about their trying to have it both ways regarding RPI/SOS and conference tourney results. Also, I feel ya' about hoping refs throw out "reputation" in the tourney, but I'm afraid you are dreaming. The name on the front of the jersey and the name of the coach on the sideline is ALWAYS going to influence about 95+% of refs in borderline situations. The refs are NOT robots. The big-name coaches, schools, and players get breaks, especially in big games.

Posted by ccantrell on March 17, 2008 at 5:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Clemson and VA TECH played UNC down to the wire. No reason we couldn't, we have the talent. Odds would be about 60/40 against us. But I like 40% with BP coaching and seniors we have. Go VOLS....

Posted by hunt4414 on March 17, 2008 at 5:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)

tennessee can beat any team in this tournament....
tennessee can lose to about half of the teams in this tournament....

if the vols win their first 2 games without too much trouble, id say a final four is def reachable. however, i can also see butler giving us us we can handle and then getting destroyed by louisville in
the 3rd round.

Posted by bamacheats on March 17, 2008 at 5:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)

The tourney is all about the draw, not the teams you draw, but the officials. Eades, Bradley, and Valentine will send Bruce's boys packing!

Posted by utchris2003 on March 17, 2008 at 11:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)

We have the talent to play with and beat any of the other 63 teams. Every team gets a clean slate. The team that bows up and plays the hardest, the smartest, the most passionate, and refuses to lose, will be the one left standing when the dust settles. You know for sure that kids like Lofton and JaJuan (two that have made a living proving others wrong) will fight to the death to make sure that the next game is not their last and I think BP will find a way to challenge the others to fight that fight with them. If this team plays with a chip on their shoulder, they can beat anyone.

Posted by DadwasaVol on March 18, 2008 at 11:30 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I just don't see a Final Four this year but I will be cheering like heck. Butler and Louisville are better than South Carolina and Arkansas. Playing UNC in the regional final would be a dream come true. I will see you guys in Charlotte for the games.

Posted by pdhuff on March 18, 2008 at 5:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Final Four!!! I'm gunning for the final 32.

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