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I have a confession to make. I have for 25 years been a secret player personnel consultant for the NBA's Los Angeles Clippers. Lately, I've also been advising the Memphis Grizzlies.

OK, I'm kidding. But it's not an implausible explanation when you glance at the standings.

It seems the Clippers and Grizzlies don't get it. Neither do I.

As a long-time follower of college basketball, and SEC basketball in particular, I'm at a loss to project which players will make it in the NBA and which won't.

The topic is on the table again because of Tennessee's Chris Lofton, who was not drafted Thursday night, but it's been an ongoing perplexity.

Twenty years ago, could you have predicted that Auburn's Chris Morris would play 11 seasons in the league to Dyron Nix's one?

The college game and pro game are different. That much I understand.

There is obviously a place in both for a monster like Shaquille O'Neal, a rangy shooter like Allan Houston or an athletic freak like Michael Jordan.

But the list of no-brainers isn't as long as you think. Most guys fall into the gray area.

I went back over the All-SEC players since 2000 and sorted out which ones made it in the NBA. Crapshoot is a word that comes to mind.

Take the 2002 class. Four SEC players were drafted: Marcus Haislip, Tayshaun Prince, Vincent Yarbrough and Rod Grizzard. Was there compelling evidence that only one would stick in the NBA? That the one would be Prince?

Prince and Grizzard were both thin, long athletes, about the same height with similar games. Grizzard was waived, never played a minute. Prince has started the past five years for the Pistons and is headed to the Olympics.

A year later, six SEC players were drafted in 2003. SEC Player of the Year Ron Slay was not among them.

Slay was kind of a tweener but I thought he'd at least get a shot. Five years later, he's still working to get that shot, whereas Keith Bogans and Jarvis Hayes have been in the league all the while.

Being SEC Player of the Year, in fact, is almost a curse. Of nine players so dubbed by either the media or the coaches from 1998 through 2004 only Prince, Bogans and Stromile Swift have sustained an NBA career.

They apparently had some edge that Ansu Sesay, Chris Porter, Dan Langhi, Erwin Dudley, Slay and Lawrence Roberts did not.

There's no dishonor in not making, or sticking in, the NBA. Nix, Slay, Yarbrough and any number of SEC stars have made a fine living playing overseas.

Still, any good player aspires to make the league. That includes Lofton.

And here are seven reasons for him to keep dreaming the dream:

C.J. Watson, Kelenna Azubuike, Chuck Hayes, Udonis Haslem, Marquis Daniels, Jannero Pargo and Ronald Dupree. Seven SEC players who ended the 2008 season on NBA rosters. All were undrafted free-agents who scrapped their way into the league since 2002.

Haslem played in France for a year before Miami decided they liked him. Watson, Hayes and Azubuike toiled in the NBA's D League, got 10-day call-ups and made them stick.

Lofton has some amazing attributes but also obvious limitations. He's a 6-foot-2 shooter, short by NBA standards, with hardly any experience at the point. He doesn't have great lateral quickness, a liability on defense.

UT coach Bruce Pearl is optimistic Lofton will eventually make a roster. He compares Lofton to the Lakers' Derek Fisher, a little guy who found a role and parlayed it into a 12-year career.

Eric Fleischer, Lofton's agent, suggested Eddie House of Boston and Damon Jones of Cleveland, two smaller off-guards who have learned to help at the point.

For sure, the NBA is a hard place on "little" guys. Still, if there's a spot for a 6-1 Pargo, there should be a spot for Lofton. Shouldn't there?

If Hayes, an undersized 6-6 forward can make it (and even start), why not Slay, who is at least 6-7 and has a perimeter shot?

Hey, I'm the wrong guy to ask.

Mike Strange may be reached at 865-342-6276 or strangem@knoxnews.com.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.